The U.S. Energy Information Administration expects winter heating costs to vary substantially according to household fuel and region, its winter fuels outlook said, as reported by Fox Business on Oct. 7, 2026.
The agency projects spending on natural gas to fall 9% nationally from last winter. The West is an exception in the forecast, with a projected 7% increase, while other regions are expected to see declines of 10% to 15%. Propane costs are forecast to fall 3% overall, though the estimate ranges from a 10% drop to an 8% increase. The outlook projects no change for the South, a 4% decrease for the Midwest and a 15% decline for the Northeast.
For households primarily using heating oil, EIA projects spending to rise 21% nationwide, with the forecast range running from about 15% to 35%. Electricity-heated homes are expected to see a 4% increase, with single-digit increases across the outlook’s uncertainty range. The West is projected to rise 9%; the South and Midwest, 3% each; and the Northeast, 3% lower.
EIA said its temperature assumptions include a warmer Northeast than last winter, a colder West, and conditions similar to last year in the Midwest and South. The agency cautioned that NOAA’s identification of a strong El Niño pattern could produce significant temperature variations from its forecast.
These are projections, not final household bills. Actual costs depend on weather and energy prices, and the outlook includes uncertainty ranges. The estimates are for winter 2026–27 as presented in the October 2026 report.
