A Fox News poll released Oct. 21 found Democrat James Talarico and Republican Ken Paxton tied at 49% among likely Texas voters in the contest to replace U.S. Sen. John Cornyn. Paxton won the Republican primary after receiving President Donald Trump’s backing. The survey’s result marks a shift from September, when Talarico led by two points, 51% to 49%.
The poll found Texans favor Republicans retaining control of the U.S. Senate by four points, 51% to 47%, compared with a one-point Republican advantage in September. But party preference does not translate evenly into candidate support: 98% of Democrats said they support Talarico, while 90% of Republicans backed Paxton. Nearly three in 10 non-MAGA Republicans supported Talarico, according to the survey.
The candidates drew different strengths across voter groups. Talarico led among Black voters by 65 points, urban voters by 29, voters younger than 30 by 28, and women with college degrees by 23. Paxton’s largest reported advantages were among White evangelical Christians, where he led by 52 points; White men without college degrees, by 32; rural voters, by 21; and voters 65 or older, by 18.
Hispanic voters favored Talarico 64% to 34%, a 30-point margin. The poll’s account noted that this group backed Joe Biden by 25 points in 2020 and Donald Trump by one point in 2024, citing the Texas Fox News Voter Analysis. Hispanic voters also favored Democratic control of the Senate by 29 points.
Democrats showed greater reported election interest: 69% said they were extremely interested, compared with 61% of Republicans. Among voters who were extremely interested, Talarico led by seven points. Republican pollster Daron Shaw, who conducts the Fox News poll with Democrat Chris Anderson, said the contest could hinge on whether Republicans dissatisfied with Paxton turn out and vote for him despite reservations.
The poll found Talarico’s favorable rating at 49%, with 48% viewing him unfavorably. Paxton’s rating was 41% favorable and 58% unfavorable. Among voters who viewed both candidates negatively, Paxton led by 50 points. Concerns about the candidates were close: 53% worried Talarico’s positions were too liberal, while 50% were concerned Paxton was too close to Trump. The shares who said they were extremely concerned were 36% and 37%, respectively.
Trump’s job approval in the survey stood at 45%, with 54% disapproving. Paxton received support from 13% of voters who disapproved of Trump, while 6% of those who approved of Trump supported Talarico. The poll also found 43% of voters said their personal finances were worse than two years earlier, 20% said they were better, and 36% said they were about the same. Talarico led by 45 points among those reporting worse finances; Paxton led among those who said their finances were better or unchanged.
In the governor’s contest, incumbent Republican Greg Abbott led Democrat Gina Hinojosa 52% to 47%, the same margin reported in September. Abbott’s job approval was 50%, with 48% disapproving. The poll said 9% of those who disapproved of Abbott still supported him in the election. It also reported that 7% of Talarico supporters backed Abbott, while 2% of Paxton supporters supported Hinojosa.
Beacon Research and Shaw & Company Research jointly directed the poll, conducted Oct. 15-19 among 2,011 registered Texas voters selected from a statewide voter file. Interviews took place by landline, cellphone and online after text invitations. The margin of sampling error was plus or minus two percentage points for the registered-voter sample and plus or minus 2.5 points among 1,398 likely voters. The poll’s methodology notes that subgroup sampling error is higher and that question wording and order can affect results.
