A Redfin analysis published in October 2026 estimates that housing affordability could improve over several years, but the timeline depends on mortgage rates, home prices and local market conditions.
In one scenario, housing costs could return to what Redfin considers normal within five years if mortgage rates fall to 6% and home prices rise about 2.1% annually. Redfin economist Daryl Fairweather told Fox Business that the projection does not assume a sudden collapse in home prices. Instead, the gap between housing costs and incomes could narrow as earnings rise and home-price growth slows.
The analysis gives different timelines under other assumptions. If rates fall to 6% and prices stop growing, Redfin estimates affordability could normalize by February 2029. If prices instead decline 2% year over year while rates reach 6%, the estimate is May 2028. With rates staying between 7% and 8% and prices continuing to grow at 2.1% annually, the process could take at least 10 years. The report also estimates about six years in a scenario where rates remain near 7.5% and price growth flattens.
Redfin identified San Jose, Austin, Oakland, Seattle and Portland as metro areas that could reach its affordability benchmark sooner. About half of the markets studied could take at least a decade, including Boston, the New York City area, Chicago and Milwaukee, according to the report. Markets where prices are rising faster than the national rate may also take longer to normalize.
These are conditional forecasts, not promises about future prices or borrowing costs. Fairweather advised buyers not to try to time the market, while noting that affordability trends may improve for people who are not yet able to buy.
