Fox News’ Oct. 13 Power Rankings forecast Democrats to win control of the House, while describing the Senate as a toss-up ahead of the 2026 midterm elections. The projections are assessments, not election results, and rely in part on polling and analysts’ judgments about the races.
The forecast gives Democrats an advantage in at least 219 House seats, compared with at least 198 for Republicans, with 18 races rated toss-ups. It estimates that a favorable night for Democrats could produce about 237 seats; a strong Republican outcome could leave the GOP with roughly 216, short of a majority. The rankings cite Democrats’ lead in the generic congressional ballot, candidate recruitment and shifts in campaign spending as factors behind changes to individual district ratings.
The analysis also points to recent polling in several rural districts as a possible concern for Republicans. It reports that surveys show close contests in New York’s 21st District and Maine’s 2nd District, among others. Those figures represent individual polls and do not establish how voters will ultimately decide.
For the Senate, the forecast rates the parties even at 47 seats each, with six toss-up contests likely to be central to control. It adds Minnesota to a broader group of states considered competitive, moving the state from “Likely D” to “Lean D.” The article cites a poll showing Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan ahead of Republican Michele Tafoya, 47% to 43%, with 9% undecided. The rankings note that the state’s outcome remains uncertain.
The forecast says Democrats could reach 53 seats if they win all six toss-ups, while Republicans retain a path to avoid losing seats by holding the same contests. These are scenarios in a pre-election projection, not confirmed outcomes.
