Larry Kudlow argued in a Fox Business commentary published Nov. 2, 2026, that election polling should not be treated as a substitute for votes. With one day remaining before the midterm election, he challenged forecasts of broad Republican losses and said he expected Republicans to keep control of the Senate. He described the House contest as likely to be close but did not offer a precise prediction of its outcome.
Kudlow disputed figures he attributed to a recent New York Times/Siena poll. He said it showed Democrats leading by 11 percentage points in Michigan’s Senate race, seven points in Texas, six in Maine, and five each in Ohio and Kansas. The article did not provide the poll’s field dates, sample sizes, margins of error or full methodology, so those details cannot be assessed from the supplied material.
To question the Michigan result, Kudlow pointed to what he described as Democratic Rep. Haley Stevens’ endorsement of Republican Senate candidate Mike Rogers. He also said former Michigan Democratic Party chairman had encouraged people to stay home. Kudlow asserted that these circumstances could weaken the support for Democratic candidate Abdul El-Sayed, but the commentary supplied no supporting data for the size or effect of any such change. The former chairman was not named in the text.
Kudlow also cited a finding he attributed to the same Times article that Republicans were ahead among late-deciding voters by nine points across seven battleground states. He further said white liberal voters were about 30 percent more likely than registered white Republicans to participate in the poll. The supplied commentary did not identify the underlying survey or explain how those comparisons were calculated.
Beyond polling, Kudlow made a case for a Republican advantage based on his view of the economy and public preferences. He called the economy strong and said most Americans favor free enterprise and private health care over larger government programs. He also asserted that many voters oppose paying for health and other benefits for people in the country illegally. These were presented as his political judgments; the supplied text offered no polling or economic data to substantiate them.
Kudlow credited President Donald Trump’s campaigning as another factor that could help Republicans, while acknowledging that gasoline prices remained uncomfortably high. He concluded that Republicans would maintain Senate control and that the House contest would be tight. His column made clear that he was not treating this as a firm forecast, and the material provides no election results or independent confirmation of the polling and political claims cited.
