Republican Sen. Susan Collins and Democratic challenger Troy Jackson were tied at 49% apiece among likely voters in a Fox News poll of Maine’s Senate race. The survey was conducted Oct. 16-20, and all interviews were completed after the candidates’ Oct. 15 debate.
The poll found voters expressing dissatisfaction with both the economy and President Donald Trump’s performance. Twelve percent said their family was better off financially than two years earlier. Trump’s job approval stood at 37%, while 62% disapproved, including 54% who strongly disapproved. More than six in 10 disapprovers included some Republicans, according to the survey.
Voters also differed over how closely the candidates align with their parties. Fifty-three percent said they were concerned Collins votes with Trump too often. Forty-six percent said Jackson was too liberal. Both candidates had net-negative personal ratings: Jackson was viewed favorably by 47% and unfavorably by 49%; Collins was rated favorably by 47% and unfavorably by 51%.
Asked which party should control the Senate, 53% preferred Democratic leadership and 45% wanted Republicans to retain control. Jackson supporters overwhelmingly favored a Democratic-led chamber, at 96%. Among Collins supporters, 89% preferred Republican control, while 9% said they wanted Democrats to lead.
The poll showed a Democratic advantage in reported interest in the election. Seventy-nine percent of Democrats said they were extremely interested, compared with 61% of Republicans. Jackson led Collins by 16 points among voters in that highly interested group and by four points among voters who said they were certain to vote. Among the roughly one in five respondents who had already cast ballots, Jackson held a 40-point advantage. Voters planning to cast ballots on Election Day favored Collins by 12 points, the survey reported.
The candidates’ support also varied across demographic groups. Voters under 45 favored Collins by six points, while voters 45 and older favored Jackson by three. Women backed Jackson by five points; men favored Collins by four. Jackson led by 23 points among voters with college degrees, while Collins was ahead by 16 points among those without degrees. Collins led by seven points among rural voters, while Jackson led by 18 among suburban voters.
The poll’s Republican pollster, Daron Shaw, said Republicans need strong turnout among White rural voters to compete with Democratic strength in urban areas. Beacon Research’s Mikaela Linder, the Democratic pollster involved in the survey, said Collins has previously performed better than her party but faces a Democratic enthusiasm advantage. Both comments are assessments by the pollsters, not survey findings.
Collins is seeking a sixth Senate term and is the only Republican senator seeking reelection this year from a state Trump lost in 2024, by seven points. She won reelection in 2020 by nearly nine points. The poll found party loyalty high: 90% of Collins supporters and 92% of Jackson supporters said they were certain of their vote. Independents, a small subgroup in the survey, favored Collins by 13 points.
In the gubernatorial contest included in the poll, Democrat Hannah Pingree led Republican Bobby Charles 49% to 39%, while independent Rick Bennett received 9%. Jackson supporters largely backed Pingree, with 8% supporting another candidate. Among Collins supporters, 11% backed Bennett and 8% supported Pingree.
Beacon Research and Shaw & Company Research jointly directed the poll. It interviewed 1,689 registered Maine voters selected from a statewide voter file, using live phone interviews and online responses following text invitations. The likely-voter results were based on 1,514 respondents and have a stated margin of sampling error of plus or minus 2.5 percentage points. The registered-voter sample’s margin was plus or minus two points. The poll’s organizers noted that subgroup estimates have larger sampling errors and that question wording and order can affect results.
