Republican Michele Tafoya is seeking to flip Minnesota’s open U.S. Senate seat, with a recent poll and a change in Fox News’ race rating suggesting a closer contest than previously projected. The seat is held by retiring Democratic Sen. Tina Smith, and the state has not elected a Republican to the Senate in nearly 25 years, according to Fox News.
A Minnesota Star Tribune/KARE 11 poll cited in the report put Tafoya four percentage points behind Democratic Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan. Fox News’ Power Rankings shifted the race from “Likely Democrat” to “Lean Democrat,” less than three weeks before Election Day. The source did not provide the poll’s field dates, sample size or margin of error.
Tafoya, a former NFL sideline reporter, told Fox News Digital she believes voters are comparing her record and ideas with Flanagan’s role in the state government. Flanagan served as lieutenant governor under Gov. Tim Walz. Tafoya said she is offering a change in direction and described herself as an independent-minded candidate.
The welfare assistance fraud scandal has become a major subject in the campaign. The source says the scandal has drawn national attention for nearly a year and that Walz abandoned his 2026 reelection bid. Tafoya has criticized the administration and argued that fraud harmed programs meant to provide services, including children’s meals and visits for seniors and people with autism. Her statements are campaign claims; the source does not independently assess the scale of harm or assign responsibility for specific cases.
Flanagan has said she is angry about the fraud and acknowledged that officials could have acted sooner to detect and prevent it. She has also said she did not oversee the agencies at the center of the scandals or direct the state’s day-to-day response. The report says she has distanced herself from Walz, who accepted blame for the fraud. Flanagan’s campaign did not respond to Fox News Digital’s request for comment by publication.
Republican strategist Kirsten Kukowski told Fox News Digital the scandal has received extensive local news coverage and has made the race tighter. The report also describes Tafoya’s focus on gang-related shootings in Minneapolis-St. Paul suburbs. Tafoya announced a five-point plan to address violence and accused Flanagan of failing to identify what Tafoya characterized as Somali gang violence. Those assertions were presented as Tafoya’s campaign statements; the source does not provide independent details about the incidents or the plan’s provisions.
The candidates entered the general election after winning their respective primaries. Flanagan defeated Democratic Rep. Angie Craig by about 20 points in the August primary, while Tafoya received more than half the vote in a crowded Republican field. National Republicans, including Sen. Tim Scott, had recruited Tafoya. Senate Majority Leader John Thune has campaigned with her, although the source reports that the Senate Leadership Fund had not made a major investment in the contest.
Democratic-aligned Senate Majority PAC communications director Lauren French said the group’s latest poll showed Flanagan with a strong lead and predicted she would win. French called Republican efforts to put Minnesota in play a political ploy. These comments contrast with the poll and rating shift described earlier in the report; the source does not supply enough methodology to compare the polls directly.
The campaigns have also emphasized national political alignments. Flanagan has linked Tafoya to President Donald Trump. Tafoya’s campaign ad describes her as a Republican who supports abortion rights and says she will work with Trump when she agrees with him and oppose him when she does not. Conservative Political Action Conference senior fellow Mercedes Schlapp criticized the ad, while Trump later endorsed Tafoya at an Ohio rally, according to the report.
