Larry Kudlow argued in an Oct. 15, 2026, Fox Business opinion column that Republicans should not be counted out in the Senate midterm races. He based his case on polling averages that he described as showing several contests within the margin of error, rather than a clear Democratic advantage.
Kudlow referred to RealClearPolitics polling and its Senate map, saying one version showed seven toss-up races and another listed eight. He cited a polling analyst’s observation that narrow margins in toss-up states leave Republicans a route to retaining control, and said the party would need to win four of the eight states on that map. The column did not identify the polling dates or provide individual state percentages.
The writer predicted Republican victories in several races. He said Sen. Roger Marshall would hold his Kansas seat and Rep. Ashley Hinson would keep Iowa in Republican hands. He also forecast that Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton would defeat Democrat James Talarico, that Sen. Jon Husted would retain Ohio, and that Sen. Susan Collins would win in Maine. In Michigan, he rejected the prospect of a victory by Abdul El-Sayed. Kudlow acknowledged that some of his predictions might not come true, but said he expected Republicans to retain the Senate comfortably.
The column also forecast that Republican Michele Tafoya would defeat Minnesota Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan. It linked several Democratic candidates, including Talarico and Maine challenger Troy Jackson, to support for Medicare for All. Kudlow argued that such a program would endanger employer-provided coverage and cost more than $50 trillion. Those are the columnist’s claims; the supplied material does not include independent analysis or responses from the candidates.
Kudlow contrasted his Senate outlook with a more uncertain House contest, writing that the House was a different story. He faulted Republicans for not emphasizing tax reductions and spending and anti-fraud reforms. He also criticized Democrats’ affordability message, attributing inflation to President Joe Biden’s policies and arguing that Democratic proposals would raise taxes and spending. The column offered no supporting calculations for its cost estimates or inflation assertions.
The piece is commentary rather than a reported account of election results. Its forecasts describe a campaign outlook as of Oct. 15, 2026, not confirmed outcomes. Kudlow urged former President Donald Trump and Republicans to stay focused on their message during the 19 days he said remained before the midterms.
