A Fox News Power Rankings report published October 20, 2026, describes a more uncertain Republican outlook in rural areas ahead of the November elections. The report says nearly two-thirds of rural voters supported President Donald Trump in 2024, but just under half now say they plan to vote Republican this November.
The report identifies household costs and local economic conditions as concerns for rural voters. In a recent survey cited by Fox, 19% named rising living costs as their biggest economic problem, with gas and energy expenses also prominent. Eight percent identified a lack of jobs or unemployment as their top economic concern. Fewer than one in four said the economy was in good shape, and 28% rated job opportunities in their communities as good or excellent.
The report also discusses data centers, which 2% of rural respondents named as their biggest economic problem. Fox notes that the share is small but says it indicates the issue has become a more prominent concern for some voters than housing, living costs or employment.
Fox links these concerns to tighter political contests in rural districts and states, including Ohio and Iowa. It says some districts carried by Trump by double-digit margins are now close, and warns that lower rural turnout or voters changing party could narrow Republican advantages in Florida, Mississippi and South Carolina. As an example of campaign messaging, the report says television ads scheduled to run in Wyoming that week for Republican House candidate Chuck Gray did not mention Trump or the Republican Party. Trump won 71.6% of Wyoming’s vote in 2024, according to the report.
Independent Senate candidates are another factor in Idaho, Montana, Nebraska and South Dakota. Fox says the candidates emphasize anti-establishment proposals, including congressional term limits and lobbying bans, and focus on corruption, which the report identifies as the top voter concern in the previous week’s Fox News poll. All four candidates say they would not join either party’s caucus or would establish an independent caucus if elected. Democrats have withdrawn from the contests in three states; a Democratic candidate remains on the Montana ballot, though Fox says her support has declined.
The report notes that these states have seen competitive races before. It cites Democrat Jon Tester’s 2018 Montana Senate victory and close Republican wins in South Dakota and Nebraska. It also points to a 2014 Idaho gubernatorial race decided by less than 15 percentage points.
Fox’s rankings made two gubernatorial contests more competitive. Florida moved from Likely Republican to Lean Republican. Republican Rep. Byron Donalds faces former Democratic Rep. David Jolly. The report says Donalds retains an advantage and has Gov. Ron DeSantis’ endorsement, while Jolly planned to appear with former President Bill Clinton on October 20. It also says Hispanic voters could be important: in a Fox national survey the previous week, 31% preferred the Republican candidate, 12 percentage points below the share of Hispanic voters who supported Trump in 2024. The report describes Florida Republicans as having a 1.5 million-voter registration advantage and an established turnout operation, while noting DeSantis’ first gubernatorial win was by about 30,000 votes, or 0.4 percentage points.
In Nebraska, Republican Gov. Jim Pillen is seeking a second term after winning by 23 points in his first election. Fox says the race may be more difficult amid uncertainty among rural and suburban voters. It cites independent Senate candidate Dan Osborn as a possible source of increased Democratic turnout, local criticism of Pillen’s 5% state budget cut and hiring freeze, and a third-party gubernatorial bid by former state lawmaker Brett Lindstrom. Lindstrom, who lost to Pillen in a Republican primary four years earlier, is running under the America First label; the report says the party was founded in July.
